Who Has the Best Shot at Winning The Challenge: Battle for a New Champion?

In order to be the best, you need to beat the best.

That served as a tagline this season, but oddly enough, zero finalists beat a Champion in elimination. Instead, we’re in a final where six people avoided every elimination this season. But, the cards are dealt, and this is what we’re dealing with for the next two episodes.

Based on what we’ve seen this season, here are my rankings of the people who are in the best position to win, and the people who are in the worst position. Keep in mind, I’m only going off of what we saw on season 39 and the competitors’ prior seasons.

7. Colleen – Of all the people in the final, it feels like we’ve seen the least from Colleen. It felt like she was never the biggest target, never the strongest contender, and she never needed to pick a side. But, she hasn’t shown a great deal of endurance, especially in the mini final, and that’ll be a death sentence in a real final.

6. Moriah – I get big Jenna vibes from Moriah. Is she physically strong? Yes. Can she run? Yes, but the checkpoints will be the death of her. Puzzles and eating will slow her down significantly, and based on what we saw on Ride or Dies, she struggles when she gets flustered.

5. Berna – While it’s hard to find a huge weakness with Berna, it’s also hard to find an aspect of the final that she’ll excel in. Sure, she’s great with some aspects related to gymnastics — like balance and coordination — but those aren’t the elements we typically see in a final. But, Berna’s drive to compete could allow her to do well… unless she has to work with a partner. Then she’s bound to get into arguments.

4. Emanuel – On Spies, Lies, and Allies, Emanuel was a strong contender, but this season, he’s been the ultimate floater. He only won when he was part of a large team, and he’s stood out in very few areas. He’ll likely do well with speed and endurance, but puzzles could be his downfall, just like Spies, Lies and Allies.

3. Corey – This season, there’s an astounding lack of muscle in the final — except Corey. He has physical strength, and he’s a pretty smart guy. This will serve him well, and if physical strength is a major factor, he’s likely to make up some serious ground. So, where’s the issue? Potentially eating, but more likely he will struggle to keep composure under pressure, which could lead to mistakes in the game.

2. Nurys – It’s hard to find an area where Nurys doesn’t do well. She’s a crafty player, and she managed to break Nelson’s long losing streak on Ride or Dies. You can’t do that without being strategic, but she’s also shown strength and endurance throughout the competition. Nurys is the type of person who works well under pressure, but her biggest downfall is likely to be her physical size. Sadly, that can be a detriment, though it hasn’t hindered Nurys yet.

1. Jay – As much as viewers have been rooting for Jay to lose, he’s done really well in almost everything. Both times he ran a mini final, he performed well, and he can almost always solve puzzles. There’s also a quality in Jay that’s similar to champions like Devin and Bananas — he finds a clever way to problem solve and finds alternate approaches to success. Just look at the locks in this season’s mini final, Jay ignored the puzzle and used simple math to solve it. That’s the mindset that’s needed for success in a final and will let Jay make up ground on his opponents.