We’re halfway through the season, 18 players remain, and we’ve reached the game’s individual portion. This means over half of the cast has gone home, and some unexpected competitors are still vying for the grand prize.
Now that we’ve been exposed to the players’ social games, physical abilities, and the yet-to-be-explained karma twist, nobody is out of the running for the grand prize. That doesn’t mean every player has an equal shot at winning — so here are my rankings of the remaining competitors, from least to most likely to win.
Challenge 40: Men
9. Ryan Kehoe
Of all of the players still in the running, Ryan may be the biggest surprise. He’s perceived to be the weakest male in physical competitions, and he mostly blended into the background after winning his Era Invitational elimination. Now that the game is dog-eat-dog, he’ll be called out sooner than most other people.
Biggest strength: He has very strong allies that will not say his name, ever.
Biggest weakness: He’s perceived to be physically weak, making him a desirable Arena opponent.
8. Josh Martinez
Josh has found himself in a tricky spot. While he hasn’t had to battle in the Arena yet, he’s also raising doubts with his allies. In most challenges, he’s an average player, but average won’t cut it when we’re getting close to the end.
Biggest strength: He has a fair number of allies, even without the vacation alliance. That could keep him safe for a while.
Biggest weakness: Despite improving his physical strength, he’s still perceived as an easy opponent in the Arena.
7. Derek Chavez
Similar to Ryan, Derek hasn’t really been pushed this season. He’s floating in the middle, but we’ve also seen glimmers of strength — particularly when it comes to puzzles.
Biggest strength: Like Ryan, he has a core alliance that will save him no matter what.
Biggest weakness: He’s perceived to be a weaker Arena opponent, though people have come to realize he has tricks up his sleeve.
6. Theo Campbell
After winning his Era Invitational elimination, Theo kind of floated in the middle of the pact. His storyline has mostly revolved around his relationship with Olivia, not his athletic abilities, and he hasn’t done too much impressive this season.
Biggest strength: Speed. Theo is a runner, so he’s not the type of player you want to race.
Biggest weakness: He has fewer allies than most people. He’s relatively new to the game, and it feels like people would be willing to call him into The Arena sooner than others.
5. Johnny Bananas
This hasn’t been Johnny’s strongest season, and he’s made a few waves in the game. After episode 9, Tori named him a target. People who have historically protected Bananas are ready to jeopardize him, and we’re only midway through the season.
Biggest strength: As a veteran of the game, Bananas has some serious political pull. People might be targeting him, but they know it will come with repercussions.
Biggest weakness: He’s getting older, and some people consider him past his prime. I doubt we’ll get to the end of the season without someone calling him a spoiled or rotten banana.
4. Cory Wharton
Cory has already won a couple of Arenas this season, and he was an outsider on the Era 3 team. There’s no denying his strength, and now that the teams are dissolved, he will be able to work with his allies more freely.
Biggest strength: He’s a beast in physical competitions, and people fear his strength.
Biggest weakness: Cory is the type of player who is transparent with his targets, so there’s no doubt that there are people ready and willing to throw him into the Arena.
3. Nehemiah Clark
Perhaps the dark horse of this game, Nehemiah has impressed viewers a few times this season. He eliminated CT, was the longest-lasting Era 2 player in Bottoms Out, and formed new alliances with people like Cory and Nia.
Biggest strength: He’s a focused player, and he’s shown that he can outperform people in the random “carnival game” competitions we tend to see.
Biggest weakness: He has allies, but his political game could use some work. It got him into hot water earlier this season.
2. Kyland Young
Kyland has quite an impressive elimination record, especially when it comes to defeating champs. He’s strong, but he also thrives when it comes to strategy. Now, people are starting to recognize how strategic he can really be.
Biggest strength: Math and puzzles. Not only can he solve them, but he’s analytical in all scenarios, which helps him in the majority of competitions.
Biggest weakness: Politicking. This is what inevitably got him in hot water on Battle for a New Champion, and his social game hasn’t done him any favors this season.
1. Jordan Wiseley
You could make a solid argument for Jordan being the GOAT of The Challenge, so when he’s in the game, he’s the one to beat. He always has a trick up his sleeve, and there are few competitions where he won’t excel.
Biggest strength: Endurance. Jordan is an extremely well-rounded player, but he never gives up, which is why he does so well in finals.
Biggest weakness: Jordan’s ego has caused problems in the past. While he’s gotten better, his pride can still impact his game.
Challenge 40: Girls
9. Nia Moore
Since winning in the Era Invitational, Nia hasn’t excelled in many challenges. We’ve seen her fearful side on a few occasions, and despite her size, she was eliminated early in the Battle for Honor challenge.
Biggest strength: Her size. This makes people fear her in many scenarios, particularly one-on-one games.
Biggest weakness: We’ve seen her quit challenges out of fear, so her lack of confidence can be detrimental.
8. Aviv Melmed
Many people are impressed Aviv made it this far in the game, but she was fortunate enough to fly under the radar on a team where players were taking shots at each other. Now, we’ll have to see if she’s still the player we knew on Fresh Meat.
Biggest strength: Aviv is small but mighty, and her puzzle-solving skills make her stand out.
Biggest weakness: Her size. Regardless of how strong she is, people will target her due to her smaller frame.
7. Olivia Kaiser
Olivia is another player who shined during the Era Invitational, but she hasn’t really stood out since. Based on other seasons, we know she can be a strong competitor, but she hasn’t been forced to unleash her strength yet.
Biggest strength: Relationships. Olivia did well on her two prior seasons for making smart game moves (even backstabbing Nurys kept her safe for a week), and she has a few solid allies this season.
Biggest weakness: Endurance, though this is mostly based on prior seasons. She tends to slow down during long challenges.
6. Michele Fitzgerald
While Michele hasn’t traveled the toughest road this season, she’s also had some impressive moments. She won Light It Up, and she’s played a very forthcoming game that’s earned her respect and some new allies.
Biggest strength: Michele has a Survivor mentality and does well under pressure, particularly with puzzles.
Biggest weakness: Physical strength, it got her purged last season.
5. Tori Deal
Over the past few seasons, Tori has been noted for her strength and her alliance. While she’s been pretty strong this season, her alliance took a massive hit on episode 9. Her vacation may be over, and she’ll need to put in work to survive in the game.
Biggest strength: Physical competitions. Tori definitely has muscles, and she impressively held off major competition during Battle for Honor.
Biggest weakness: Her alliance, which is normally her biggest strength. With the numbers down, she’ll need to make new friends, and people will know this is out of desperation.
4. Cara Maria Sorbello
Cara Maria is undoubtedly one of the strongest females to ever play the game, but this hasn’t shined too much this season. Perhaps it’s just the competitions we’ve seen so far, but since winning her elimination in the Era Invitational she’s flown under the radar.
Biggest strength: Endurance. Cara’s not just strong, she also has a lot of gas in the tank and can last longer than most other players — men included.
Biggest weakness: Cara often prides herself as a lone wolf, so her social game could be detrimental, especially because TJ said relationships will be important.
3. Laurel Stucky
Season 40 hasn’t been a great showing for Laurel, but she’s still doing fairly well. She has a few strong allies, which has protected her thus far, and the mere thought of facing her in Arena is enough to scare most other players.
Biggest strength: Laurel has always been physically strong, especially in one-on-one competitions.
Biggest weakness: Whatever those “Karma Points” are, they’re not going to work in Laurel’s favor.
2. Rachel Robinson
Our lone Era 1 representative, this has been a great season for Rachel so far. She’s proven her worth in the challenges, won multiple eliminations, and earned respect from most of the remaining players.
Biggest strength: Stamina. As a fitness trainer, Rachel knows how to get through long workouts, and she proved this by winning the Bottoms Out challenge.
Biggest weakness: While fans love seeing her as the sole Era 1 in the game, other players will use this as an excuse to put a huge target on her back.
1. Jenny West
Jenny has had a tough path this season and was repeatedly made a target for the Era 4 team. However, she’s outlasted many of the people who were targeting her and it’s an individual game now. This means she can shine on her own, and she doesn’t have to worry about appeasing the massive Era 4 alliance, which she wasn’t a part of.
Biggest strength: Physical competitions. You don’t have to look too hard. Jenny is a physical specimen, and she has the strength you’d expect.
Biggest weakness: In the Pick It Up Arena, she started gassing out, which was attributed to her vaping. If she lacks endurance, it could be a problem in the final.
Stop Being Polite 