Couples have a hard time in The Challenge, coming with obvious allies. Total Madness has dissolved the target, making Red Skulls the priority, and Swaleigh has been able survive eleven weeks without either seeing elimination.
Bayleigh and Swaggy C came into the game hot. Bayleigh questioned Jay during the first deliberation and made it clear that an enemy of Swaggy was an enemy of her’s. They made a few Tribunals, and they really haven’t flown under the radar. In any other game they would have been targets, but this season they’ve survived.
With limited time until the final, avoiding elimination may not have been a good thing. Both are in the game, but neither have a Red Skull.
At this point, they’re not in the best position. People are afraid they’ll get to the end without a Red Skull on their helmet. For example, Kyle still needs a skull. If he gets nominated, he will call out whomever is the easiest route to a Red Skull. This might be Swaggy, but it would probably be Josh first. When people have to go into elimination, there isn’t the element of betrayal. Nobody is going to fault Kyle for saying Josh’s name.
Bayleigh and Swaggy aren’t really connected. If Nany wants to be sent into elimination, people will cater to her before they care to Bayleigh. Unless Nany says she wants to compete against Bayleigh, people will want to give Melissa the chance to get her skull because Melissa has more friends.
For either to get their Red Skull, I’d anticipate they need to get into the Tribunal. This is not improbable, because they have done it before, but they don’t have the numbers to hand them an opportunity. If someone gets left at the end without a skull, Swaggy and Bayleigh are the top candidates.
Of course, the game often gets more cutthroat at this point. We could see more eliminations, and then Swayleigh will get the change to earn skulls. Otherwise, they’ve waited too long to get an easy skull.