The Challenge has given us a lot of variety over its 25+ years, and season 42 is poised to feature a smaller cast than we’ve seen in recent years. With 24 contestants, this is less competitive than other seasons, but it’s certainly not the least competitive of all time.
In 2004, we saw The Inferno — a season with 20 competitors and only eight eliminations. Eight Road Rulers won, meaning 40% of the cast became champions. Omitting the non-elimination seasons, this is statistically the least competitive season we’ve ever seen.
A few years after The Inferno, we saw The Duel. That cast had 20 contestants, but only two winners: one male and one female.
So, if we took the 20 Challengers on The Inferno and put them in the original Duel format, who would have won? It’s really anyone’s guess, but it can be fun to speculate, and the footage we’ve seen over the years has given us some clues.
Early Boots
Ace Amerson: First male out | I speculate the Paris cast would have a similar fate to the Key West cast on The Duel. Not super popular, and Ace didn’t have much drive to compete this season. Regardless of the elimination format, he’s likely to be the first out.
Leah Gillingwater: First female out | The Duel doesn’t motivate people to keep their weak opponents around, so Leah would likely be unpopular as a newbie. She’d be the final girl standing in the draft, and regardless of her Duel opponent, she almost definitely loses.
Shane Landrum: Second male out | Despite lasting 10 episodes, Shane didn’t do a whole lot on The Inferno. He felt like he was a bit of an outsider, and people would likely call him out because he was a smaller guy (and let’s be real, it was 2003, they had other biases). Based on what we saw from Shane, he probably would have lost.
Trishelle Cannatella: Second female male out | Trishelle likely sticks around long enough to deliver drama — the same drama we actually saw on The Inferno. This means Mike and Coral are working against her, and she isn’t very motivated to stick around and fight an uphill battle for another month. So, she takes a big swing in the Inferno and loses (perhaps similar to Tyler on The Duel).
David Burns: Third male out | While we know Dave was only on The Inferno for a quick vacation, he also had friends on the cast. This would be the first elimination to rattle the veterans. Likely, a younger opponent would call out Dave, who was fairly apathetic toward the game, and beat him.
Mallory Snyder: Third female out | Early in the game, Mallory will have more support than her roommate, Leah, especially because she had a friendship with Christena, whom she met at the VMAs (because that was a thing in the early 00s). That security blanket would only take her so far, and eventually, she’d get called out for being a mediocre but unproven competitor.
Middle of the Pack
Jeremy Blossom: Fourth male out | On The Inferno, we saw Jeremy come into the game with a positive, ambitious attitude. He’d likely be an early target, and by the time the fourth Duel rolled around, he probably won a prior Duel (or two). Eventually, he’d meet his match, but he probably wouldn’t have to face Mike like he did on The Inferno.
Katie Doyle: Fourth female out | The Inferno ended up being a shining moment for Katie, who battled her way to the end and overcame the odds. The Duel wouldn’t push her in the same way. She’d feel the love from her friends, and she’d probably get picked early in the drafts. Eventually, someone would identify her as an easy target. But in this season, she doesn’t have Veronica-induced vengeance, and she loses in the Duel.
Darrell Taylor: Fifth male out | Darrell gets a lot of credit for winning his first four seasons, but he also avoided every Gauntlet and Inferno. He largely relied on a strategy of lying low and avoiding risky situations, and at this point in his career, a Duel would rattle him. While he stands a shot in a physical game, he’s probably not going to be able to defeat the remaining players in many other competitions.
Kendal Sheppard: Fifth female out | Though Kendal won The Inferno, she didn’t have a particularly challenging road. She volunteered herself into one Inferno, but it was against Leah. A Duel format would have many more eliminations against tougher girls, and being a newbie, Kendal would be a target. She’s definitely not an easy victory, but she’s also not unbeatable.
Abram Boise: Sixth male out | There’s no doubt that Abe was a strong player early in his career. While he’s always been a bit wild, rookie Abe was much tamer compared to early 2010s Abe. However, he had a tendency to make silly mistakes, and he accumulated quite a few penalties and disqualifications during his first three seasons. Eventually, Abe would find himself in a Duel, and he’d either get out-muscled or defeat himself with a silly disqualification.
Julie Stoffer: Sixth female out | Coming into the Inferno, we knew Coral was targeting Julie to avenge her friend Melissa. In a Duel format, this rivalry is approached very differently, as Coral would secretly worry that Julie would select her as a Duel opponent. This would buy Julie some time in the game, but eventually, a Duel would be unavoidable. My gut tells me we do not see a Julie vs. Coral Duel, and like Abe, there’s a good chance Julie loses her Duel due to a klutzy disqualification.
The Late Outs
Timmy Beggy: Seventh male eliminated | If The Inferno cast played a Duel in 2003, I would expect the Road Rules OGs (Timmy, Holly, and Veronica) to look out for each other. I think this would be a powerful alliance, but eventually, Timmy would get called out. He’s a strong player, but he’s also willing to volunteer for an elimination to keep the peace. Near the end of the game, he’d meet his match and get sent home.
Christena Pyle: Seventh female eliminated | There’s no doubt Christena was a strong competitor, but she never actually won a daily mission on The Inferno. She had no Aztec Life Savers, and her crowning achievement (other than winning) was defeating Mallory in the Inferno. On a Duel, she likely would have a couple of Duel victories under her belt, but eventually, she’d slip and lose before the final.
Syrus Yarbrough: Eighth male eliminated | Much like my theoretical Road Rules alliance, I think Mike, Coral, and Syrus would be a Real World alliance that watches out for each other. When it comes to the final Duel, alliances don’t matter: Either you win the daily challenge, or you go into the Duel. I can’t see Syrus beating Mike or CT — neither in the daily challenge nor the Duel — and he narrowly misses the final. By this point, I would expect Syrus to have one or two Duel wins under his belt.
Veronica Portillo: Eighth female eliminated | On The Inferno, Veronica was a spectacular player. She won four Life Savers, and only one was the result of a thrown mission. So, I anticipate she would be a sneakily strong competitor and a very cunning player. I expect that she’d find herself in the final elimination because she couldn’t pull out a win in the final daily challenge, and I would expect this was her first Duel of the season.
The Runners Up
CT Tamburello: Runner up | Production loves it when a rookie makes the final, and much to the delight of many viewers, CT would get there on The Duel. I’d expect him to win multiple daily challenges, but he would have also won a Duel or two prior to the final. However, this is still early in his career. He probably takes the lead early in the final, struggles with one of the checkpoints, and loses in the end.
Coral Smith: Runner up | Much like the actual Inferno, Coral would be our main source of drama this season. She’d have a big mouth, try to intimidate her opponents, and it would largely work. I would expect her to pull out a few wins when it matters the most, but ultimately, she can’t win the final. Her finishing moment would be a celebration of not getting bitten by a spider during the final. I would expect that she had a Duel win under her belt, but she probably went into an early Duel (against Trishelle, perhaps) and was able to avoid the more intimidating eliminations.
The Winners
Mike “The Miz” Mizanin: Winner | Perhaps this is a hot take, but I think Mike would be able to pull out the win on this season. He was a well-respected competitor in 2003, and most of the men would quiver at the thought of facing him one-on-one. He was also a production darling during this time, so if anyone had happy coincidences boost their game, it would be Mike. I’d expect him to have a come-from-behind victory in the final, but if anyone made it to the end of the game without seeing a Duel, it’d be Mike.
Holly Shand: Winner | In a parallel to Jodi’s victory on The Duel, Holly would be a competitor who won because she excelled in almost everything but had very little drama. Unlike Jodi, I think Holly would have landed in a Duel once or twice throughout the competition, but she never gets defeated. Her win in the final wouldn’t be too close, but after her predictable victory, production wouldn’t have a vested interest in bringing her back for future seasons.
Stop Being Polite 