Dirty Thirty was a turning point on The Challenge, but it’s not without its controversies. Nowadays, you’re likely to see people wondering why Camila wasn’t kicked off — but someone did get disqualified: Nelson.
Was Nelson going to win Dirty Thirty? Probably not. And based on the edit we saw, Jordan is a perfectly worthy winner. But Jordan only ran in the final because two men returned from the third redemption game to fill the void left by Nelson. Jordan, our eventual winner, was the second of two.
Of course, this is a huge butterfly effect, and there are so many variables that there’s no way to know how the game would have played out if Nelson had stuck around. But that thought does make you wonder if things would have been different.
If Nelson didn’t get kicked off, I anticipate the following series of events still happening:
-Dario loses in Web of Lies
-The green team wins Blackout and sends CT to the Redemption house
-Hunter wins Backstabber and seeks retaliation on Jordan, sending him to Redemption
If I had to guess, I think we still would have seen a Hunter vs. Leroy Body Check elimination, sending Leroy to the Redemption house. The big change would come at The Reel World, where Tony has an option when he draws the Double Cross. Instead of a Derrick vs. Bananas elimination, we see Derrick vs. Nelson, and inevitably, Derrick still wins.
Then, CT reenters the game. There’s no way Nelson would outperform him in “The Final Redemption Challenge,” so our final five would be Bananas, CT, Derrick, Hunter, and Tony.
Essentially, we see Bananas slide into Jordan’s role for X Marks the Spot. He makes the final, avoids Snaking Your Way Back In, and the final three men are Bananas, CT, and Derrick.
We can rule out CT as the winner, since he came in third overall, so the final would really be Bananas vs. Derrick. And if I had to guess, our winner would be…
Derrick. The Dirty Thirty final was heavily based on endurance and cardio, an area where Jordan thrives. Rumor has it, there was a biking checkpoint that didn’t make it to air because it would’ve made Jordan’s victory too obvious. While I think Jordan can outperform Derrick’s cardio, I think Derrick has more gas in the tank than Bananas.
I think Derrick vs. Bananas is a much closer race than Derrick vs. Jordan. Bananas tends to do well at the random checkpoints throughout the final, and Derrick is more likely to struggle. But, he would almost always have a female partner to help him, and that would mitigate Bananas’ advantage, allowing Derrick to clock a slower time.
Of course, this is just a fantasy. Every Challenger — including Jordan — knows you need to be lucky to win. And luck was on his side during Dirty Thirty. He did the best he could with the cards he got dealt, and ultimately, it was enough to win.
Stop Being Polite 